We measure the number of days a stock has been up and down over the previous 88 trading days (4 months). A perfectly random walk would have a stock up 50% of the says and down 50% of the days. We can also perform the exercise on stock indices. Currently, using the S&P 500 index, stocks have been up 66% of the trailing 88 days. Moreover, the percent of days up has been above 50% all year long, which is a first since the Lehman induced financial crisis of 2008.
This looks less like a random walk than a manufactured sprint, engineered by massive amounts of quantitative easing. In sports, the payback from a "run" is a "slump".
![image](http://pppre.s3.amazonaws.com/387cd92f82d57d58/70ab1e0f78024562ac12f5c00ca07782.png)