Tuesday, October 22, 2013

The most interesting charts from today's (delayed) US Employment Report

Our favorite statistic to look at whenever the monthly employment reports rolls around is actually 3 statistics multiplied together. We take Payroll Employment x Average Weekly Hours x Average Hourly Earnings to come up with a "National Income Proxy". It's indicating 3Q GDP growth will remain within the range that it has been in since the recovery began.
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The US Manufacturing Renaissance theme that is very popular is not yet showing up in the employment.
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The participation rate was unchanged from the month before. That also means it continues to be at its lowest level since 1978.
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One positive is the number of people who have been unemployed for the longest amount of time continues to decline.
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State and Local Government's are hiring again. And based on tax revenues, this trend looks like it will continue.
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