Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Average Stock Is 8% Off 252-Day High and 31% Above 252-Day Low

While the MSCI World Index is just a smidge off it's all-time high, the average stock is about 8% below it's 252-day high.  Recent history suggests that we will need a slight consolidation, either through price or time, in order to make way for further gains. Over the past seven years, the lowest percentage the average stock has been from it's 252-day high is 6%. So the current reading is at somewhat extreme levels as the chart below shows.

image

Conversely, we have seen a divergence forming since May 2013 when looking at the average percent from 252-day lows and price of the MSCI World Index. The average price from the 252-day low has actually decreased from 52% to 31% over the past year while the market has rallied 200+ points. Strange...

image