Thursday, July 17, 2014

Decent Gains in European Car Registrations Obscure Underlying Slowdown in Momentum

In June, new vehicle registrations in Europe maintained a positive year-over-year growth rate for the tenth month in a row-- a trend not seen since before the global financial crisis.

image

Though registrations fell nearly 2% in Germany, trends remained more positive in the four other largest European economies.  Notably, vehicle registrations in Spain have experienced double-digit growth versus a year ago in each of the last four months.

image

Renault continues to lead other auto manufacturers (as we discussed a while back, here), with registrations growing more than 20%yoy in June.

image

Whether these positive trends can continue remains to be seen, however.  Sales in July and August are usually the weakest of the year.  In addition, a number of uptrends in our relative strength point-and-figure charts seem to be easing and/or encountering resistance more recently.

image
image
image
image
image
image
image

As the charts illustrate, the average daily percent change for the group has declined from +0.13% over the longer-term (252 days) to -0.02% for the most recent 31 day period.

image

On a relative basis, the average daily percent change has gone from a +0.7% to a -0.7% when comparing the longer-term to more recent moves in prices.

image