Thursday, October 16, 2014

Late Cyclical (Dead Cat?) Bounce Today

While the DJIA finished slightly lower for the 6th consecutive day, the MSCI North America Index managed to squeak out a 20 bps gain. Late cyclical sectors were by far the strongest of the 10 sectors today.

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This makes sense to us since these three sectors have exhibited the weakest momentum (i.e. most oversold) recently. For example, before today, only 7% of Energy stocks were trading above its 200-day moving average compared to 68% for the Utilities sector.

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From a performance perspective, late cyclicals have also been the weakest sectors as well. Year-to-date, Energy and Industrials have been the worst performing sectors in North America and only another cyclical sector, Consumer Discretionary, has been worse than the materials sector.

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Overall, we would not read anything into today's price action as the trend below seems strongly intact.

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