A Point-and-Figure Perspective on Ratings Upgrades

Faithful followers will already know that we do not rely on meetings with management or analyst reports in our methodology for finding the world's best knowledge leaders.  And, while we have developed a more objective, data-driven process, it is always interesting to at least take a look at how our various tools compare with the consensus from the street.  Some of the most striking differences arise when we compare companies' rating changes with a quick look at our point-and-figure charts.

For instance, Vestas Wind Systems has been upgraded nine times in the last 100 days-- the most of any company in the MSCI AC World Index, comprised of nearly 2500 names from both the developed and emerging world.

Based on this metric alone, one might imagine that the picture looks bright for this Danish Industrial.  The stock has clearly enjoyed a decent period of relative outperformance over the last couple of years, following a significant low in 2012:

What might concern us, however, is that the uptrend seems to be struggling at a point of long-term resistance (between row I and row J).  This is not to say that resistance can't be overcome-- it simply prompts us to question the consensus that this security can live up to the index-leading analyst optimism.

Taking a look at some more examples of upgrade leaders in the last 100 days, we find that quite a few of them have relative strength charts (and, therefore, relative momentum) that could be interpreted to contradict the improvements in consensus: