The Drop in the Oil Price Should Not be Viewed in a Vacuum

It would be one thing if the recent fall in the price of oil was an isolated event completely explainable by supply side and/or geopolitical factors such as overproduction or the desire of the Western powers to punish Russia for its Ukrainian crusade. That, however, does not seem to be the case. Indeed, the drop in the price of oil is being confirmed by a host of other indicators that, in combination, point to the conclusion that global growth is slowing, not accelerating. Below are some charts to help illustrate.

WTI Crude Oil has fallen by about 45% over the last six months:


We've also seen the copper price (the metal with the PhD in economics) slide to another cycle low...


And bond yields in developed economies make new cycle and/or all-time lows:










Derived inflation expectations are tanking:


And the yield curve is undergoing a bull flattener (a bearish sign):


Meanwhile only five out of twenty three developed market country's stock markets are positive YTD, with the US being the only major country to post positive performance:



Europe is down 7.5% in USD terms:


While developed Asia is down 5% in USD terms:


And EMs are down 6.5% in USD terms: