Monday, January 12, 2015

Estimates Revisions: Winners and Losers

With earnings season on the horizon, we thought we'd take a quick tour of estimates around the globe.  Positive revisions to sales and earnings estimates in developed countries have hovered around 20% to 25%, respectively, over one-, three-, and six-month time periods.

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Historically, these low levels of positive revisions for companies in the MSCI World Index haven't typically lasted for long periods of time.  Can we expect an increase in optimistic estimates?

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Developed Europe has the dubious distinction of being the leader in negative revisions while the outlook for North American (and, particularly, U.S.) companies is distinctly more positive.

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And, while sales and EPS revisions over a three- and six-month time horizon have not been overwhelmingly optimistic in emerging markets either, there was a notable improvement in sales estimates over the last month, led mostly by improvements in Asian companies.

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Of course, sales and earnings are impacted by exchange rates.  If current trends in major currencies persist and these relationships hold, there is a chance that revisions could deteriorate further.

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