![image](http://pppre.s3.amazonaws.com/2e47dfdabc288aad/deabe7bee37e4fe4a2d6ec1504a3e04c.png)
![image](http://pppre.s3.amazonaws.com/2e47dfdabc288aad/d16d148c3d4f4e0b89d898a0886ebfbc.png)
The Philadelphia Fed General Business Conditions Index has hit the wall sine November.
![image](http://pppre.s3.amazonaws.com/2e47dfdabc288aad/514cb50e27c3435f99ab03c90601e710.png)
At the same time, things are ripping in Milwaukee and look solid in Michigan.
![image](http://pppre.s3.amazonaws.com/2e47dfdabc288aad/7f43536315024b9b864f164fd4e58c9f.png)
![image](http://pppre.s3.amazonaws.com/2e47dfdabc288aad/c8b95e5ffbd647ecbb4c0c5afc7ca4fa.png)
We calculate a diffusion index based on the regional PMI surveys. The latest reading is -10, the worst going back a decade. On net, it has dropped 28 points since July 2014.
![image](http://pppre.s3.amazonaws.com/2e47dfdabc288aad/a87142185a864a7e9e71a71c20b5c5f6.png)
Looking at our 3-month diffusion index of the PMI surveys, we can see why the ISM has dropped by over 2.5 points since August reflecting the weak breadth.
![image](http://pppre.s3.amazonaws.com/2e47dfdabc288aad/3881d1e23c5e4b4db46c924165f59328.png)
So far, on balance, the drop in oil seems to have had a negative impact on US production survey data, creating more losers than winners.