Gavekal Capital: Is the Yen Hinting at a December Taper?

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Is the Yen Hinting at a December Taper?

We've been highlighting how S&P 500 futures and the YEN/USD cross have basically been moving tick for tick recently, so we thought it prudent to point out that the relationship has basically dissolved over the last two days, and in fact has started to reverse. Since Tuesday S&P 500 futures have fallen by about 40 points to 1768, which would imply a YEN/USD cross of 101.5-102. Instead we have the yen trading down to 103.4, which given the timing we have to chalk up to an anticipation of a taper next week (and thus a stronger USD). Time will tell, but the action in the bond market (10Y yields are up 8bps since Tuesday) would support this view.