Gavekal Capital: To Taper Or Not To Taper? Digging In To Today's Employment Report

Friday, December 6, 2013

To Taper Or Not To Taper? Digging In To Today's Employment Report

Today's employment and personal income and outlays reports may be strong enough for the Fed to begin tapering later this month. November employment came in at 203k jobs and the unemployment report dipped to a 5-year low (7%). The net revisions for September and October were also 8k higher.

The US has now experienced four months of 200k+ employment growth and our national income proxy remained around 4%.

The household survey had the biggest one month change since January 2003. This helped drive the unemployment rate to 7% even has the participation rate (encouragingly) gained to 63%.

Finally, the unemployment rate for men aged 20-24 also dropped to five-year low following an almost 2% drop. This group has had by far and away the highest unemployment rates since the 2008 so a decline here is good to see.

About Gavekal Capital

Gavekal Capital is a US registered investment advisory firm that manages the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Strategy. Knowledge Leaders are a group of the world’s leading innovators with deep reservoirs of intangible capital. These companies often possess competitive advantages such as strong brand, proprietary knowledge or a unique distribution mechanism. Knowledge Leaders are largely service-based and advanced manufacturing businesses, often operating globally. Gavekal Capital seeks to identify the world’s leading knowledge companies through a proprietary process that analyzes corporate knowledge investments.
We offer the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Strategy in multiple products for global investors. For more information about our product offerings please visit http://www.gavekalcapital.com.
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