Gavekal Capital: A Visual Tour Of Today's US Employment Report

Friday, April 4, 2014

A Visual Tour Of Today's US Employment Report

The headline nonfarm payroll number for March came in slightly below consensus at 192K (consensus was looking for 206K). Perhaps more importantly, however, the prior two months were both revised higher by a total of 37K jobs.

Regular readers of our blog know that to us the most important number out of the monthly employment report is actually three components multiplied together: payroll employment, average weekly hours, and average hourly earnings. This has been termed national income proxy. On a quarter-over-quarter annualized rate, national income proxy rose by 6.48%, the highest rate since May 2010.

Nonfarm private payrolls also increased by 192K and are about 2% higher year-over-year. Private payrolls are now at an all-time high.

The unemployment rate held steady at 6.7% while the participation rate increased slightly to 63.2. The household survey increased by 476K jobs.

Unemployment rates for people who have a high school degree is at the lowest level since September 2008.

The labor force has increased slightly year-over-year by 0.73%.

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