With recent vibrations in the stock market, we thought it would be time to check in on revenue expectations for the MSCI World industry groups. We make one small tweak when we look at the data; we equal weight each company within it aggregate, instead of market cap weighting. This was, each stock impacts the results equally, rather than proportionally based on size.
We take the next four years worth of analyst estimates and then calculate the average over the next four years. Software and semiconductors--two technology groups--are expected to turn in the best top line performance.
Next, we examine the recent changes in those top-line estimates. We measure the 1,3,6 month change in revenue estimates below. Over the past six months, pharma/biotech have the best revisions.
Focusing just on the past three months, we can see a different perspective on recent revisions. Here again, pharma/biotech have seen the biggest revisions to the next four years of expected revenues.
We then measure the percent of companies with positive revision over various time periods. Over half the pharma/biotech companies are seeing rising expectations.