Gavekal Capital: US Econ Roundup - Initial Claims Improve To Best Level Since 2007 & Trade Prices Remain Subdued

Thursday, April 10, 2014

US Econ Roundup - Initial Claims Improve To Best Level Since 2007 & Trade Prices Remain Subdued

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell to 300K which is the lowest level in 360 weeks (May 2007). The four-week moving average is very close to making a new 7-year low as well.

Import prices rose by 0.6% month-over-month in March while export prices rose a strong 0.8%. On year-over-year basis, however, prices remained subdued as import prices are slightly negative (-0.6%) and export prices are only slightly positive (0.2%). Import prices ex-petroleum are slightly positive year-over-year but look like they may slip to slightly negative according to exchange rates. Finally, the movement in the yen is indicating that we may see a rise in import prices of autos in the near future. This wouldn't be too surprised given that the year-over-year change in auto import prices are basically at all-time lows.

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Gavekal Capital is a US registered investment advisory firm that manages the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Strategy. Knowledge Leaders are a group of the world’s leading innovators with deep reservoirs of intangible capital. These companies often possess competitive advantages such as strong brand, proprietary knowledge or a unique distribution mechanism. Knowledge Leaders are largely service-based and advanced manufacturing businesses, often operating globally. Gavekal Capital seeks to identify the world’s leading knowledge companies through a proprietary process that analyzes corporate knowledge investments.
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