Warning Sign: Number Of 1% Down Days Are Ticking Up And Tracking Taper

One of the many technical data points that we look at is the 6-month moving sum of days where either the index or an individual stock finishes down by 1% or more. The MSCI World Index has now had 7 days in the past six months (compared to only 2 days at the beginning of the year) and The MSCI North America Index has had 9 days in the past six months (compared to only 5 days at the beginning of the year). What is particularly interesting is how well this data point correlates with the level of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. In the charts below, the red line is the 3-month difference in total Fed assets with a simple projection using the assumption that the Fed continues to taper an additional $10 billion in asset purchases at each meeting. What becomes clear quickly is that if this relationship holds than there are many more 1% down days in the near future. Below are charts of the MSCI World, MSCI North America and selected stocks.

The above mentioned securities may be in our current portfolio. Please refer to website for a current list of our holdings-  http://www.gavekalcapital.com/ucitsfundtop20.php