Thursday, October 16, 2014
US Initial Unemployment Claims Make 14-Year Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to just 264K for the week of October 10th. This is the lowest level since April 14th, 2000. The non-seasonally adjusted series is now down 23% year-over-year. This is a positive sign that the US economy isn't on the brink of a recession. The non-seasonally adjusted series tends to rise year-over-year as the economy falls into a recession (blue bars in the second chart). Unemployment claims as a percent of payroll employment fell to a 8-year low. Surprisingly, considering this positive and improving employment back drop, St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard told Bloomberg this morning that the Fed should consider delaying the end of QE.