Gavekal Capital: Volatility is Now Clearly Rising Off of (in Some Cases Generational) Lows

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Volatility is Now Clearly Rising Off of (in Some Cases Generational) Lows

It was only a few months back when we began feverishly highlighting here, herehereherehere, and here how volatility in many markets was at or near generational lows and that any move to return to the mean would be disruptive. Several months on, it now seems that volatility in those markets had indeed put in its lows as our volatility indicators have all moved higher in the last few weeks. The relationship between our FX volatility indicator and the VIX has remained in place too (last chart), which portends a more interesting equity market if FX volatility were to continue its march higher toward its long-term mean.

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