Gavekal Capital: CFNAI Makes 94-Month High, Existing Home Sales Disappoint

Monday, December 22, 2014

CFNAI Makes 94-Month High, Existing Home Sales Disappoint

As has seemingly been the case all year (or maybe even the past four years), we had a mixed bag of economic releases today in the United States. On the positive side, we had the Chicago Fed National Activity Index post the highest monthly number since December 2006. This indicates that the activity level in November was far above trend in the US (i.e. 3%). Perhaps more importantly, the three-month moving average broke out to its highest level since May 2010. If activity levels keep up in December, the 4Q GDP report may surprise to the upside.

On the negative side, we had today's disappointing existing home sales report. After having a run of five months when existing home sales remained about 5 million, November's report came in at 4,93 million. Consensus expectations were for 5.2 million. Existing home sales are just 2% higher year-over-year. The report also showed that the median and average selling price has declined for five straight months. However, both are still higher year-over-year. Lastly, supply remains steady at 5.1 months. Months supply has remained around the 5 month level for most of the past two years.

About Gavekal Capital

Gavekal Capital is a US registered investment advisory firm that manages the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Strategy. Knowledge Leaders are a group of the world’s leading innovators with deep reservoirs of intangible capital. These companies often possess competitive advantages such as strong brand, proprietary knowledge or a unique distribution mechanism. Knowledge Leaders are largely service-based and advanced manufacturing businesses, often operating globally. Gavekal Capital seeks to identify the world’s leading knowledge companies through a proprietary process that analyzes corporate knowledge investments.
We offer the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Strategy in multiple products for global investors. For more information about our product offerings please visit http://www.gavekalcapital.com.
Blogs are posted by our investment team. Find out more about us at here. Read more about our strategy at www.gavekalcapital.com.

Disclosure

The information presented here is for informational purposes only, and this document is not to be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, securities. Some investments are not suitable for all investors, and there can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Hyperlinks may be included in this message that provide direct access to other internet resources, including web sites. While we believe these links are to reliable sources, Gavekal has no control over the accuracy or content of information contained on these sites. Although we make every effort to ensure such links are accurate, up to date and relevant, we have no control over pages maintained by external providers. The views expressed by these external providers on their own web pages or on external sites they link to are not necessarily those of Gavekal.
The information listed on this blog is for example purposes only and should not be construed as the investment Advisor's opinion or investment outlook. As of the most recent quarter end, the named companies may have been held by the investment Advisor. Please review the most recent disclosures. For full information including additional policies and full disclosures on the Advisor, please visit our website gavekalcapital.com.