Gavekal Capital: World Inflation Falls To 59-Month Low

Monday, December 1, 2014

World Inflation Falls To 59-Month Low

All eyes seem to be on crude oil prices right now. Taking an average price of WTI and Brent as a proxy for global oil prices, oil is down over 33% year-to-date. In November alone, oil was down about 12%. In light of this, we find it noteworthy that our simple measure of World CPI (averaging 33 countries year-over-year change in CPI) fell to a new 59-month low in October, the lowest year-over-year change since November 2009. Assuming that energy prices continue to drag down CPI baskets around the world, it would not be surprising to us to see our World CPI measure hit further new lows in the months ahead. Will this be a cause of concern for central banks around the world or will they view it simply as a transitory drop in the headline CPI? That will be a question on the minds of investors everywhere.

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