Gavekal Capital: Copper Slumps to Lowest Level Since October 2009

Monday, January 12, 2015

Copper Slumps to Lowest Level Since October 2009

While the collapse in the price of oil has grabbed the headlines, the weakness in the price of copper continues to pique our attention. We've written extensively over the last year (see Copper is at a Critical Level Here, Copper is Pointing to the Wrong Kind of "Flation", Copper is Breaking Down Again and What it Means for EM Stocks, and Copper Thumbing Its Nose at Chinese and European Stimulus for example) about the weakness in copper prices and what that portends for economic growth and prices of financial assets. Because copper in an input to many construction and manufacturing activities, its price tends to tell us something about the economy. Copper is continuing to tell us that global economic growth is slowing as its price is now at levels not seen since October 2009. The only difference between now and then is that in October 2009 the price of copper was rising passed $2.72 the price is falling through $2.72 just as the oil price and bond yields are making new lows.