Gavekal Capital: When The Lead Stock Stumbles

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

When The Lead Stock Stumbles

Off the October 3, 2008 low, Priceline.com has outperformed the MSCI All Country World index by roughly 1,100% making it the single best performing stock in the index. For this reason, PCLN is the leadership stock in the index.

PCLN began to underperform in March 2014 and appears to be starting to accelerate on the downside. Using our point and figure charts, the relative strength breakdown is easier to see. In this chart below, each X is a 2.5% relative outperformance and each O a 2.5% relative underperformance compared to the MSCI All Counrty World Index.

Should present trends persist, PCLN will break the all-important 45 degree bullish support line, suggesting that a major reversal of trend has occurred. When leadership begins to falter, this is something to be taken seriously. In our experience, when the lead stock stumbles in a bull market advance, this suggests a change in the overall market trend is taking place.

About Gavekal Capital

Gavekal Capital is a US registered investment advisory firm that manages the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Strategy. Knowledge Leaders are a group of the world’s leading innovators with deep reservoirs of intangible capital. These companies often possess competitive advantages such as strong brand, proprietary knowledge or a unique distribution mechanism. Knowledge Leaders are largely service-based and advanced manufacturing businesses, often operating globally. Gavekal Capital seeks to identify the world’s leading knowledge companies through a proprietary process that analyzes corporate knowledge investments.
We offer the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Strategy in multiple products for global investors. For more information about our product offerings please visit http://www.gavekalcapital.com.
Blogs are posted by our investment team. Find out more about us at here. Read more about our strategy at www.gavekalcapital.com.

Disclosure

The information presented here is for informational purposes only, and this document is not to be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, securities. Some investments are not suitable for all investors, and there can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Hyperlinks may be included in this message that provide direct access to other internet resources, including web sites. While we believe these links are to reliable sources, Gavekal has no control over the accuracy or content of information contained on these sites. Although we make every effort to ensure such links are accurate, up to date and relevant, we have no control over pages maintained by external providers. The views expressed by these external providers on their own web pages or on external sites they link to are not necessarily those of Gavekal.
The information listed on this blog is for example purposes only and should not be construed as the investment Advisor's opinion or investment outlook. As of the most recent quarter end, the named companies may have been held by the investment Advisor. Please review the most recent disclosures. For full information including additional policies and full disclosures on the Advisor, please visit our website gavekalcapital.com.