Gavekal Capital: Regional Winners And Losers In The US From The Drop in Oil Prices

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Regional Winners And Losers In The US From The Drop in Oil Prices

The drop in oil prices has brought up a few questions with respect to who will benefit and who will be negatively impacted. There are regional PMI surveys and Federal Reserve surveys that can help fill in some of the gaps. For example, below is the Dallas Fed New Orders index and the Houston PMI. Both have turned down lately likely reflecting weakening of the weekly rig count.

The Philadelphia Fed General Business Conditions Index has hit the wall sine November.

At the same time, things are ripping in Milwaukee and look solid in Michigan.

We calculate a diffusion index based on the regional PMI surveys. The latest reading is -10, the worst going back a decade. On net, it has dropped 28 points since July 2014.

Looking at our 3-month diffusion index of the PMI surveys, we can see why the ISM has dropped by over 2.5 points since August reflecting the weak breadth.

So far, on balance, the drop in oil seems to have had a negative impact on US production survey data, creating more losers than winners.

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