Gavekal Capital: Subtle Shift in Factor Importance

Monday, February 23, 2015

Subtle Shift in Factor Importance

Over the last several weeks, there has been a subtle change in the factors that have contributed most to performance trends for the MSCI World universe.

While sales and earnings estimates have been the most important factors over the longer-term...

Correlations of Treasury Bond yields, as well as cash levels, have risen in importance in the last week and month.

With respect to valuation metrics, the dominance of P/B and P/E over a longer time horizon has given way to increased relevance for dividend yield--especially over the last week:

Finally, the relative importance of earnings and sales growth has declined while cash as a percent of capital has become a more important factor in performance: