Gavekal Capital: San Francisco Real Estate Is 75% Above Housing Crisis Lows

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

San Francisco Real Estate Is 75% Above Housing Crisis Lows

The latest (March) Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released this morning and there were several noteworthy data points in the report. First, our 3-month diffusion index that measures the number of cities where prices are higher now than they were three months ago increased by six cities in March to a six-month high of 18. This means that 18 of the 20 cities tracked by Case-Shiller HPI have higher prices now than they did three months ago. All 20 of the cities have higher prices now than they did a year ago according to our yearly diffusion index. Second, Dallas and Denver remain the only cities that have increased past their housing bubble peak price point. However, Boston, Charlotte and San Francisco are only a few more strong months away from making new highs. Finally, speaking of San Francisco, house prices there have been booming. San Francisco house prices are now a staggering 75% higher than they were at the bear market low in March 2009. No other city comes close in mounting such a rebound off of the housing crisis lows.

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Gavekal Capital is a US registered investment advisory firm that manages the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Strategy. Knowledge Leaders are a group of the world’s leading innovators with deep reservoirs of intangible capital. These companies often possess competitive advantages such as strong brand, proprietary knowledge or a unique distribution mechanism. Knowledge Leaders are largely service-based and advanced manufacturing businesses, often operating globally. Gavekal Capital seeks to identify the world’s leading knowledge companies through a proprietary process that analyzes corporate knowledge investments.
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