Gavekal Capital: Are Japanese Stocks Poised for a Change in Trend?

Friday, November 15, 2013

Are Japanese Stocks Poised for a Change in Trend?

The Japanese stock market has had a good run over the last few months (especially the price weighted Nikkei, which has risen 16% since the June low) and headline indices are close to or have already broken above their May highs on a nominal basis. Our Point & Figure charts show a similar pattern when drawing the nominal price action.

On a relative basis it looks like the MSCI Japan has tentatively broken its downtrend line and hasn't made a new low in over a year. We'd like to see more sideways action as evidence the index has stopped going down (relative to the MSCI World), but breaking the four-year-old down trend line is a good first step.

Absolute in USD:

Relative to MSCI World Index in USD:

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