Gavekal Capital: Small Business Hiring Plans Slowdown

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Small Business Hiring Plans Slowdown

The percentage of small businesses that are planning to increase hiring fell back 4 percentage points to 5% in October. Unfortunately, in this recovery 10% of firms planning on increasing hiring has acted as an upper bound for this series. To put this in perspective, outside of recessions, from 1994-2007, this series was only ever BELOW 10% twice. It would seem that before a more meaningful decline in the unemployment rate can happen, small business will have to start hiring more.