Gavekal Capital: Does The Small-Cap Breakdown Signal A Weakening Euro/Yen

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Does The Small-Cap Breakdown Signal A Weakening Euro/Yen

With an almost 90% correlation, movements in the Euro/Yen have a strong relationship with the relative performance of large cap stocks (SP500) vs. small cap stocks (SP600). In the last week, small cap relative performance has broken down from a three month consolidation. Does this signal a weakening of the Euro/Yen, likely a function of stronger Yen, in the weeks to come? This would be another piece in the puzzle suggesting the global liquidity environment has taken a turn for the worse.

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