Friday, May 2, 2014
NYSE Margin Debt Declines In March - Is the High In Place?
Margin debt declined for the first time since May 2013 the latest data point shows. As we have shown before, NYSE margin debt has historically peaked about 1-5 months before the actual stock market high. There haven't been too many head fakes in the past especially after a period where margin debt rose so sharply. The one month change after the high, however, is far less than what we observed after margin debt peaked in 2000 and 2007. For what it is worth, however, it is larger than the declined observed in 2011 before a nearly 20% drop.