Gavekal Capital: Stock Prices Just Aren't Moving Like Normal

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Stock Prices Just Aren't Moving Like Normal

Here is yet another indicator highlighting the absolute lack of volatility in the stock market. The below chart measures the cumulative number of stock price moves of 5% or more over the last 65 days for all stocks in the MSCI World Index. The indicator doesn't differentiate between 5% up moves or 5% down moves as it is intended to be a neutral measure of aggregate volatility.

Let's put the current reading of 825 into perspective. Since the indicator sums up all the 5% stock price changes over a rolling 65 day period, this translates to about 13 stocks per day experiencing price changes to 5% or more. There are about 1610 stocks in the MSCI World Index, so this means that on average less than 1% of stocks had a price change of 5% or more on any given day over the last 65 days.

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