Gavekal Capital: Down Days on the Rise in MSCI Europe

Thursday, August 7, 2014

Down Days on the Rise in MSCI Europe

While the number of days where MSCI Europe declines by 1% or more remains low by historic standards, that number is rising-- especially since June.  In the past, increases above 15-20 have been consistent with an acceleration in losses:


In general, up days represent an increasingly smaller proportion of market moves over any given time period.  More defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples and Utilities have seen particularly large declines:


Has the market reached extreme enough conditions to warrant a bounce?  For more on European weakness, see here and here and here.