Gavekal Capital: Update on VIX Curve Inversion

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Update on VIX Curve Inversion

A few weeks ago, we noted the relationship between an inverted VIX curve and declines in the S&P500 (see here).  Taking a longer-term view, we see that the last few years have been relatively quiet--characterized by few, intermittent inversions and minor pullbacks in the index.  A larger spike than we saw last week and/or a sustained inversion between prices of the VIX and the 3-month VIX would be symptomatic of a more meaningful correction: