Gavekal Capital: Flattening Yield Curve and Strong Dollar go Hand in Hand

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Flattening Yield Curve and Strong Dollar go Hand in Hand

With today's action in the bond market (30-year treasury yields made new 1-year lows, finishing down 6bps, and 10-year treasury bonds nearly made new 1-year lows, finishing down 4bps), the long end of the yield curve is the flattest it's been since the fall of 2009, with the 30-10 spread at 74bps. This flattening has predictably coincided with strength in the USD as chart 1 below shows. Given that the yield premium for 30s over 10s is still about 26bps above the long-term average (2nd chart below), we could easily conceive a continued flattening of the long-end of the yield curve and with it more strength in the dollar.

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