Gavekal Capital: Commercial Traders The Most Long 30Y Treasuries Since Early 2014

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Commercial Traders The Most Long 30Y Treasuries Since Early 2014

Over the last five years the signal given by investor positioning in options and futures contracts on the 30-year treasury bond has proven prescient. Each time commercial traders have moved to a long position in the long bond rates have been near a peak. Over the last few weeks the commercials have shifted their positioning dramatically, moving from one of the largest short positions to a net long position for the first time in almost a year. If history is a guide then we may be near an intermediate term peak in rates.

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