Gavekal Capital: Fed PMIs Were Almost Universally Weaker In January

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Fed PMIs Were Almost Universally Weaker In January

We had our first look at manufacturing conditions in February (NY Fed Empire Survey came in below consensus by a few points) and tomorrow we have the industrial production report for the US. What should we expect when that report comes out? Well, if the recent results out of the regional Fed PMI surveys are any indication, industrial production might disappoint.

We have created several diffusion indexes measure the 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 12-month change in 12 federal reserve PMI surveys. When a survey improves over a given time frame, it registers are +1 and when a survey deteriorates over a given time frame it registers a -1. For January, 11 out of the 12 Fed surveys declined from the previous month. Over the past three months and six months, nine out of the twelve surveys have declined. Finally, over the past year, eight surveys are lower and four surveys are higher.

About Gavekal Capital

Gavekal Capital is a US registered investment advisory firm that manages the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Strategy. Knowledge Leaders are a group of the world’s leading innovators with deep reservoirs of intangible capital. These companies often possess competitive advantages such as strong brand, proprietary knowledge or a unique distribution mechanism. Knowledge Leaders are largely service-based and advanced manufacturing businesses, often operating globally. Gavekal Capital seeks to identify the world’s leading knowledge companies through a proprietary process that analyzes corporate knowledge investments.
We offer the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Strategy in multiple products for global investors. For more information about our product offerings please visit http://www.gavekalcapital.com.
Blogs are posted by our investment team. Find out more about us at here. Read more about our strategy at www.gavekalcapital.com.

Disclosure

The information presented here is for informational purposes only, and this document is not to be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, securities. Some investments are not suitable for all investors, and there can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Hyperlinks may be included in this message that provide direct access to other internet resources, including web sites. While we believe these links are to reliable sources, Gavekal has no control over the accuracy or content of information contained on these sites. Although we make every effort to ensure such links are accurate, up to date and relevant, we have no control over pages maintained by external providers. The views expressed by these external providers on their own web pages or on external sites they link to are not necessarily those of Gavekal.
The information listed on this blog is for example purposes only and should not be construed as the investment Advisor's opinion or investment outlook. As of the most recent quarter end, the named companies may have been held by the investment Advisor. Please review the most recent disclosures. For full information including additional policies and full disclosures on the Advisor, please visit our website gavekalcapital.com.