
For EM stocks, there is no doubt they have been on a tear in April. EM stocks are down about 8% since July. However, this is relatively a minor drop considering in 2008 EM stocks were down by nearly 50% when the dollar was surging. EM stocks also dropped by about 32% from 2000 to early 2002 when the real trade-weighted dollar index rose by about 18%. Will EM stocks be able to continue to relatively shrug off a stronger dollar? Or will the USD make an about-face and weaken? It seems that something has to give and the gap that has opened up in the chart below will need to be reconciled one way or another.
