Gavekal Capital: Is Brazil The Next BRIC To Ride EM Equity Wave?

Friday, April 17, 2015

Is Brazil The Next BRIC To Ride EM Equity Wave?

On an equal-weighted, USD basis, Russia is up 46% year-to-date, by far the best performing country in the MSCI All-Country World Index. Coming in second, is China which is up 29%. India is the 14th best performing country (8.2%). The lone man out is Brazil which is the fifth WORST performing country year-to-date, one of only 10 countries posting a negative return year-to-date (-7%). However, there are some signs in the market internal data for Brazil that momentum is picking up.

Even though Brazil has underperformed year-to-date, so far in April Brazil has had a pretty stellar month (+11%). We are starting to see this improved momentum flow through some market internal data. 77% of Brazilian stocks are trading above its 50-day moving average and approaching a short-term overbought level. On March 27th, this level stood at only 13%. 50% of Brazilian stocks are trading above its 100-day moving average. This is the most number of stocks trading above its 100-day moving average since last September. Lastly the 200-day moving average provides some reassurance for investors that have missed this month's equity surge. Currently, only a paltry 13% of Brazilian stocks are trading above its 200-day moving average. This means that on a longer term basis Brazilian stocks are still very oversold. The upside potential then is positive if one believes the EM equity advance has legs to it.

MSCI Country Performance (as of 4/16/2015)

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