Gavekal Capital: Potential Trend Change In American Driving Habits

Friday, April 10, 2015

Potential Trend Change In American Driving Habits

The second half of 2014 and the first month of 2015 (latest data available) shows a significant increase in total miles driven and total miles driven per capita. Total miles driven on an annual basis has reached an all-time high. The 2.12% year-over-year change is the largest YoY change in nearly 10-years (Feb 2005). And the one-quarter, annualized change (8.34%) is the largest increase since 1979.

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Total miles driven adjusted for driving age population is still well below the all-time peak set in 2005. However, after a decade of steady declines, a "higher low" seems to be in place. The year-over-year change in total miles per capita is also nearly at a 10-year high. The one-quarter, annualized change is at its highest level since 1978.

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