Gavekal Capital: Fundamental Indicator Disconfirms Last 100 Point Move in S&P 500

Monday, October 28, 2013

Fundamental Indicator Disconfirms Last 100 Point Move in S&P 500

We use a very basic fundamental  indicator to capture movements in the economy and compare them to stock prices.  The fundamental indicator has two, equally weighted, pieces: 1) the CRB Raw Industrial index divided by unemployment claims, and 2) Consumer Comfort index.  Recently, as consumer confidence has slipped, the indicator has taken a thirty point dive, and it now seems to be dis-confirming the last 100 point move in the S&P 500.

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