Gavekal Capital: The most interesting charts from today's US data releases

Monday, October 28, 2013

The most interesting charts from today's US data releases

The Pending Home Sales Index has been running quite a bit hotter than the Existing Home Sales Index since late 2011. This month's report cooled that trend somewhat. The Pending Home Sales Index surprised on the downside in September. The consensus expectation was for no change month-over-month. The actual data point for September came in 5.6% lower than the previous month.

Momentum in Industrial Production looks like it is increasing. The 3-month annualized percent change has increased from just 0.26% in June to 3.67% in September.

Capacity Utilization increased slightly in September and this series is at its highest level since 2008. Capacity Utilization is slowly approaching the 80% threshold that we have seen in prior recoveries. However, the Economic Utilization (Capacity Utilization minus Unemployment Rate) remains at historically suppressed levels.

The Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey for general business activity fell from 12.8 to 3.6, however, this still indicates that business activity in this region is expanding. The survey has had an .80 correlation to the the ISM manufacturing survey since its release in 2004

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