Gavekal Capital: Mixed signals coming out of the US

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Mixed signals coming out of the US

There doesn't seem to be a trend in the US economic releases recently. In the past week we have had weaker housing data (Pending Home Sales), an ok production data point (Industrial Production), below consensus employment report (ADP), a weaker regional survey (Dallas Fed), and now today a blow-out regional survey (Chicago PMI). Very confusing!

The Citi Economic Suprise Index recently moved into slightly negative territory for the first time since July. This may be an early signal that the recent rally in the 10-year may soon be over.

About Gavekal Capital

Gavekal Capital is a US registered investment advisory firm that manages the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Strategy. Knowledge Leaders are a group of the world’s leading innovators with deep reservoirs of intangible capital. These companies often possess competitive advantages such as strong brand, proprietary knowledge or a unique distribution mechanism. Knowledge Leaders are largely service-based and advanced manufacturing businesses, often operating globally. Gavekal Capital seeks to identify the world’s leading knowledge companies through a proprietary process that analyzes corporate knowledge investments.
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