Gavekal Capital: Mixed signals coming out of the US

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Mixed signals coming out of the US

There doesn't seem to be a trend in the US economic releases recently. In the past week we have had weaker housing data (Pending Home Sales), an ok production data point (Industrial Production), below consensus employment report (ADP), a weaker regional survey (Dallas Fed), and now today a blow-out regional survey (Chicago PMI). Very confusing! 


The Citi Economic Suprise Index recently moved into slightly negative territory for the first time since July. This may be an early signal that the recent rally in the 10-year may soon be over.