Gavekal Capital: The End of Commodities' Relative Underperformance?

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

The End of Commodities' Relative Underperformance?

With an impressive jump in coffee futures and a breakdown in copper, commodities have received a fair amount of attention so far this week.  Indeed, they recently broke a multi-year trend of underperformance versus equities:

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For a different perspective, we also like to look at commodities indices and individual commodities through our relative strength point-and-figure methodology.  Our proprietary charting system is designed to dampen the noise associated with short(er) sighted fluctuations in price, helping us to better see the dominant trend in a particular stock or, in this case, commodity.  In this light, the CRB Index (relative to the MSCI World Index) has quite a bit of ground to cover before we might call the outlook positive:

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On an absolute price basis, however, the downtrend does seem to have eased.  Do we see the beginnings of a base?:

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