Gavekal Capital: Financial Conditions Tighter Now Than At Any Point Since 2009 According To Chicago Fed

Monday, April 20, 2015

Financial Conditions Tighter Now Than At Any Point Since 2009 According To Chicago Fed

We won't know how the first quarter officially ended for another nine days but the Chicago Fed just gave us a hint that it will be below trend growth. According to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the three-month period ending in March just posted the slowest growth since October 2012. Also, economic growth looks like it slowed from February to March as March posted the lowest level in over a year. The 3-month moving average of the CFNAI pretty much spent all of 2014 indicating above-trend growth. It seems that 2015 has gotten off to a slower start. The employment component also dipped below trend for the first time in nearly two years. Lastly, financial conditions significantly tightened according to the adjusted index. Financial conditions are tighter now than they have been at any point since 2009.

About Gavekal Capital

Gavekal Capital is a US registered investment advisory firm that manages the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Strategy. Knowledge Leaders are a group of the world’s leading innovators with deep reservoirs of intangible capital. These companies often possess competitive advantages such as strong brand, proprietary knowledge or a unique distribution mechanism. Knowledge Leaders are largely service-based and advanced manufacturing businesses, often operating globally. Gavekal Capital seeks to identify the world’s leading knowledge companies through a proprietary process that analyzes corporate knowledge investments.
We offer the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Strategy in multiple products for global investors. For more information about our product offerings please visit http://www.gavekalcapital.com.
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