Even after decent gains in US Treasury bonds since the beginning of the year, commercial traders--the so-called smart money--are still carrying a large long exposure to bonds. Each week the Commodity Future Trading Commission (CFTC) releases data detailing the position of several classes of traders participating in various contracts. Recent data shows that commercial traders are as long bonds as they have been over the last few years. And, this applies across the maturity spectrum from 5 year bonds to 30 years bonds. This suggests large commercial traders--those involved in interest rate markets as a course of business--are betting on lower interest rates.