Gavekal Capital: German Industrials

Friday, February 7, 2014

German Industrials

After a somewhat weak industrial production data release, we thought we would review what is-- and isn't-- working in the MSCI Germany Industrial sector.

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Overall, the average Germany Industrial company's stock has actually not performed poorly over the last month, leading all sectors (with the exception of Utilities where both constituents outperformed on buyout/ upgrade news):

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More than half of the MSCI Germany Industrial sub-industries have outperformed the MSCI World over the last month:

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The Industrial Conglomerates' underperformance can be traced to downgrades of Siemens, in spite of the company beating earnings expectations:

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On an absolute basis, Siemens appears to be turning back down from resistance established in 2011-- the question is whether the bullish support line will hold, allowing for another attempt at a breakout:

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When we look at the point-and-figure chart on a relative basis, however, the stock appears to be breaking out from a solid base and defying the downtrend line:

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Turning to the most positive performer in the MSCI Germany Industrial sector, we have Lufthansa-- which is breaking out above long-term resistance on a absolute price basis:

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Versus the MSCI World, we see a picture with a lot more resistance:

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